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Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, April 20, 2008 945 am EDT
For the past month or so, I have been studying the overall
pattern across the Atlantic Basin and how this may play into the
2008 Hurricane Season. Based on my studies of the past month, it
appears that we are headed towards an above normal hurricane
season.
I have taken a look at the seasonal forecasts from Colorado
State, Jeff Masters, Tropical Storm Risk and North Carolina State
University. In particular, I took a look at the factors that
these four forecasts were based on. Three things are setting up
that are key to this hurricane season.
First is that the strength of the Azores high pressure system
is weaker than normal. If this trend holds through the hurricane
season, then this will lead to weaker trade winds and less wind
shear in the tropics which would lead to the potential for an
above normal hurricane season.
The second item is the warmth of the water just off of the
coast of Africa. Sea
surface temperature anomalies show sea surface temperatures
that are up to 2 degrees above normal. This trend of sea surface
temperatures in this location strengthens the idea that the
Azores high pressure system will be weaker than normal this
hurricane season and thus wind shear values will be weaker than
normal leading to the potential of an above normal hurricane
season.
The third item is the state of ENSO. Currently, we are in a
La Nina phase and all of the forecasts I have seen indicate that
we will go into either a neutral state or a weak La Nina for the
2008 Hurricane Season. If this holds true, then we would be
looking at the potential for an above average hurricane season.
As for storm tracks and landfall possibilities.
Unfortunately, this part of the forecast is nearly impossible to
judge this early out. In my view, we really need to have a storm
out there for us to figure out where it may go, because the upper
level wind patterns change so much during the hurricane season.
So, my message is that all areas of the US coastline are at risk
every hurricane season and you should not become complacent. All
it takes is one hurricane to ruin your day!!! So, all residents
and vacationers along the coast should stay abreast of tropical
storm and hurricane advisories throughout the 2008 Hurricane
Season. Prepare now for the 2008 Hurricane Season. To help you
prepare, visit these sites for more information:
With that said about landfall possibilities, Colorado State
University put out some analog years for 2008, which are: 1950, 1989, 1999 and 2000. If you click on the links for each of
those years, you will see storm and hurricane activity and where
they went. Now, what popped out at me was that three of the four
analog years had at least one major hurricane strike on the
United States and all four analog years had both East Coast and
Gulf of Mexico activity. Now, I am not saying that we will have a
major hurricane strike on the United States, I am just saying
that keep these 4 analog years in the back of your mind as you
prepare for the 2008 Hurricane Season. In particular, keep in
mind that all 4 years had both Gulf of Mexico and East Coast
activity and all parts of the US coast were at risk all four
hurricane seasons.
As for specific numbers: I think we are looking at around 13
named storms this coming hurricane season, around 7 of those
storms becoming hurricanes, and 4 of those hurricanes becoming
major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson
Scale).
In conclusion, this 2008 Hurricane Season Outlook is more
meant to let you all know to prepare now for the 2008 Hurricane
Season. Get your supplies now before the start of Hurricane
Season and definitely before any Hurricane Watches or Warnings go
up. Have a plan ready in case a hurricane comes knocking on your
door. Even if a hurricane doesn't affect you this hurricane
season, wouldn't you rather be safe than sorry and avoid the
massive rushes at the stores during a Hurricane Warning.
I will be issuing daily tropical weather discussions
throughout the 2008 Hurricane Season beginning on Sunday, June 1,
so stay tuned!
Prepared by Rob Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the
best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard
forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any
action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole
responsibility of that user.
